More Unicorns

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More Unicorns

Postby Batman on Fri Jan 09, 2015 5:43 pm

The Union of Concerned Scientists apparently still believes in unicorns:

Obama’s Nuclear Legacy #2: Ending Prompt Launch
http://allthingsnuclear.org/ending-prompt-launch/

Here's where he rides his unicorn on a journey into La-La Land:
Let’s assume the United States removed its land-based missiles from their current rapid launch posture. Then a serious military crisis emerges that could, at least in theory, require the use or potential use of nuclear weapons. Say, for example, that Russian military forces are massing on the border of one or more Baltic countries. Some in the U.S. military worry that if, in such a situation, the United States decided to put its missiles back on prompt launch status, this could make the crisis even more dire by signaling that the United States thought there was a possibility the crisis might become nuclear. If Russia had also removed its missiles from their rapid launch posture, it might then begin to put its missiles back on high alert, leading to a re-alerting race. In a worst case scenario, Russia might attempt a nuclear strike to destroy U.S. missiles before they could be re-alerted. And since militaries thrive on planning for worst case scenarios, however far-fetched, the U.S. military argues that it must maintain prompt launch status.


Our and the Russian (and Chinese, for that matter) militaries must be prepared through prior planning for ALL feasible contingencies, yes? I think he doesn't understand geopolitics.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby TerrorOfTucson on Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:44 pm

Bub, but, they're CONCERNED! Does that count for nothing?

I say no, not nothing; I say it means they are not on our side, and counts against them.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby MajorG1000 on Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:59 am

It's all nothing more than Mental Masturbation. What scares me the most about this article is that it reads like one giant "Story Problem" without enough information to come up with an answer:
"Barry is traveling west on a train traveling at 55 miles per hour, with seven Minuteman Missiles capable of being launched within 20 minutes. Vlad is traveling east at 52 Kilometers per hour with 6 SS 20 Missiles capable of launching in 18 minutes. How many missiles will Barry and Vlad be able to launch before their trains meet at the upcoming Nuclear Summit?"

A. None
B. Two
C. All of them
D. That information is Classified: If I told you, I would have to kill you.

Don't get caught up in a "With Us or Against Us" posture. These questions need to be asked and answered in a free society. They are questions that require much thought and deliberation before coming to a well reasoned conclusion...in fact, the longer, the better.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby TerrorOfTucson on Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:14 pm

How many "Concerned Scientists" are Russian or Chinese? Even if none, I have suspicions of groups with good-sounding names. How many laws have good-sounding names to conceal their ill-effects?

Yes, I'm spring-loaded and safety wired to the Suspicious setting. Because, Experience. My inner Pollyanna was mugged.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby MajorG1000 on Tue Jan 13, 2015 2:37 am

I have said it before: "Concerned Scientists don't make National Policy, or influence the DOD budget. Knowing what I knew when I was on crew, I never once felt that one diplomatic misstep or miscalculation by the US would bring us to a Nuclear Armageddon...I still don't. I see no indication or willingness by anyone in government to eliminate one or two entire legs of our Nuclear Triad. Yes, I know that having one squadron "stand down" has been talked about, but that could actually be a plan to better allocate and preserve limited resources...and besides, I don't see anyone moving forward with that plan. How long has the Union of Concerned Scientists been around? Since the 70s? Before then?
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby TerrorOfTucson on Tue Jan 13, 2015 2:30 pm

UCS formed in '69 at MIT. The Wikipedia page describing their range of interests does not make me feel any better.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby Batman on Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:02 pm

MajorG1000 wrote:I have said it before: "Concerned Scientists don't make National Policy, or influence the DOD budget...


Sadly, under the current administration they do. Indirectly, they whine, the media amplifies the whining (which IS happening now), and the pencil d***s in the Pen start planning for a trim. Directly, they whine, and the pencil d***s from the same think tanks and beltway bandits sitting in the Pen start planning for a trim 'cuz the Chief Executive (I refuse to call him a President) and SECDEF are sympathetic.

And Terror, I've been hardwired to skeptical since I was a kid. I post stuff like this because I have a saying that has served me well: "Better to be prepared than surprised." I could just ignore stuff like this, and then when the cuts come the voices would emerge from the cracks and crannies crying "Why didn't someone say something?"
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby TerrorOfTucson on Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:01 pm

I have no problems with you, Batman, Your sense and sensibilities work for me. I presume your inner Pollyanna got mugged, too.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby PASMAN II on Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:21 pm

Personally, I'd prefer we were "armed-to-the teeth" with 3-10 bombs on each bird. I would not want to disable any US nuclear weapon system if bringing them back on-alert (to launch) took more time than the travel time it took for one of their missiles to reach us.

Heh! We were all SAC Trained Killers- our inner Pollyanna's weren't just mugged, they were brutally raped, too!
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby silo warrior on Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:09 am

Just like my granddad always said if you have and unloaded gun you might as well have a club !!!!

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Re: More Unicorns

Postby MajorG1000 on Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:02 pm

I think PASMAN II is channeling his inner Curt LeMay. I think we all agree that this, or any Administration will not castrate our nuclear defense because any and all of that would have to go through Congress. Even when North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming were "Blue" states, there wasn't much of a chance that would happen. It has always been, and I believe it will always be that Americans don't want to spend money where they don't see a direct threat. Even in the two years prior to our entry into the Second World War, Roosevelt had to beg, cajole, and bribe Congress to start building up our armed forces. I think that Putin and Kim have done the US Nuclear Triad more good than harm...but that just may be how I read the tea leaves.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby Batman on Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:59 pm

I agree. And don't discount Xi and the PLA, either.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby TerrorOfTucson on Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:39 pm

Or the craziness of the NorKs. And the Iranians. Possibly the Pakistanis, mainly because they have nukes and I question how secure their storage is.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby MajorG1000 on Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:46 pm

Terror, all of those you have mentioned I agree about storage. Chances are they will nuke themselves before they could nuke anyone else.
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Re: More Unicorns

Postby Batman on Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:23 pm

TerrorOfTucson wrote:Or the craziness of the NorKs. And the Iranians. Possibly the Pakistanis, mainly because they have nukes and I question how secure their storage is.


I can see Iran vs. Israel and Pakistan vs. India as probable as well as possible in the future. I can also see the Norks nuking themselves by accident during a test.
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